NEW YORK (AP) — Drake has returned as the “Iceman.” And the stakes couldn’t be higher.

His ninth studio album — and his first since his extravagant loss in a very public feud with Kendrick Lamar — arrives Friday.

The beef between two of hip-hop’s biggest stars erupted in the spring of 2024, with the pair trading a series of vitriolic tracks that culminated with Lamar’s release of “Not Like Us.” The hit song was a direct attack on Drake, spurring Drake’s defamation lawsuit against their shared label that was dismissed. Drake’s appeal of the dismissal is pending, but in hip-hop spaces, Lamar’s victory over Drake is undisputed.

The Canadian rapper is at a crossroads. He’s still one of the most popular artists on the planet, and a successful entrepreneur with businesses spanning music, fashion, sports, online gambling and beyond. But he hasn’t had a smash single in a few years.

In hip-hop, where reputation is central to cultural clout, where does he stand?

Drake after Lamar

“The Kendrick battle absolutely dethroned Drake. Up until then, he was considered the leader of the pack, insofar as sales and hit records,” says Sowmya Krishnamurthy, author of “The Blueprint: Inside the Business of Roc-A-Fella Records.”

“He also just hasn’t been able to recover with a hit record. I often like to say all is forgiven with a hit,” she said.

Since the feud began, Drake has had only a few modest successes: “Nokia” and “What Did I Miss?” peaked at No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100.

Peter A. Berry, a music journalist with work in XXL and Complex, takes it a step further: “People have beefed in rap before and people have lost public rap battles. But the loss that Drake took to Kendrick Lamar on a national and global stage is probably the biggest loss any rapper has ever taken in a big rap conflict.”

He points to “Not Like Us” taking home record and song of the year at the 2025 Grammys, a first for a rap diss track. The victory lap concluded with Lamar performing the chart-topper onstage at the Super Bowl halftime show.

Not only did Drake lose the battle, but he was struck by his own weapons: “Not Like Us” is a rap song so catchy it bordered on pop, fueled by meme-able lyrics — the kind of thing Drake has long been known for. (See: “Kiki, Do you love me?” from 2018’s “In My Feelings,” or even “YOLO” from 2011’s “The Motto.”)

And yet, he’s still one of the most popular artists of the 21st century. Just last month, Spotify named him the third-most streamed artist in the history of their platform, globally, just behind Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny.

“He remains this kind of immutable pop culture force,” says Berry, even though he hasn’t had a long-lasting, multiweek No. 1 hit since 2018’s “Nice for What,” “God’s Plan” and “In My Feelings.”

“Drake’s music hasn’t evolved,” Krishnamurthy adds. The lack of innovation, she says, in addition to fractured, algorithmic listening habits has made Drake less successful than in years past.

His 2021 album, “Certified Loverboy,” is largely considered a turning point, where the ubiquitous hits and critical praise slowed.

“It just feels very sort of scattered and disorganized. It’s almost like he’s throwing things at the wall and hoping for something to stick,” says Krishnamurthy, analyzing Drake’s lack of huge singles.

That’s why “Iceman” feels so pivotal. “Let’s say it doesn’t perform to certain standards. It will get harder and harder to see him as a viable artist,” she said.

What does Drake need ‘Iceman’ to accomplish?

Drake’s album rollout seems to reflect the pressure of the moment.

“Iceman” is no surprise release. He’s been teasing it for weeks, with livestreams and themed YouTube skits. He covered his favored courtside seats at Toronto’s Scotiabank Arena in ice and turned a parking lot in downtown Toronto into a massive ice block installation. Fans used blowtorches, sledgehammers and pickaxes to reveal the album’s release date.

“Drake has been a genius-level marketer,” says Matthew Ismael Ruiz, a culture critic. “He’s masterful at commanding attention. The ice block was smart because it forced people to talk about it. It was a physical impediment to anyone in that community — and that instantly goes viral.”

“Of all the things he’s done in the last few years, this ‘Iceman’ album rollout has been unambiguously great,” says Berry. “It’s reminding people that he can be kind of unpredictable.”

But inventive promo can only do so much. Ultimately, Drake would benefit from a massive hit. “We’re about to go into the summer. If he can come out with a song of the summer, I think that would be really great for him,” says Krishnamurthy.

Reputationally, Ruiz believes the collaborations on “Iceman” will be revealing — and that keeping the track list closely guarded could be telling. “The features will be the best indication of his pull in the industry,” he says — concrete proof of who supports him after the Lamar beef.

This could be his comeback album, Krishnamurthy says — and not just in terms of streams. “Reputation, culture, these are things that cannot be quantified,” she says. “Maybe he does spectacular commercially and that is great, but that doesn’t mean that the music is good or has any lasting impact.”

Because ultimately, “Drake is very concerned with his own mythology,” says Berry.

Even if “Iceman” goes No. 1, if it doesn’t stay there, if it doesn’t improve Drake’s reputation with hip-hop fans, if it isn’t met with acclaim — it may very well be a disappointment.