AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the Massachusetts state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Massachusetts Democrats will decide the latest head-to-head matchup between the party’s moderate and progressive wings in a state primary Tuesday, but this time, top progressives are backing the incumbent against a more moderate challenger.

U.S. Sen. Ed Markey faces a competitive Democratic primary challenge from U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton in his bid for a third full term. The contest ties together two recurring themes in Democratic primaries this year: progressives vs. moderates, and longtime incumbents vs. significantly younger challengers.

Bay State voters will also choose nominees for U.S. House, governor, and a variety of state and local offices.

Markey, who turned 80 in July, is the second-oldest sitting U.S. senator seeking reelection in 2026. He took the seat in 2013 after serving nearly 37 years in the House. He last faced a competitive primary in 2020, when he defeated then-U.S. Rep. Joseph Kennedy III, 55% to 45%.

Moulton is a six-term congressman who briefly sought the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. He will turn 48 in October.

Markey has had a slight financial advantage over the course of the campaign, raising and spending more than $8 million compared with more than $6 million for Moulton. Moulton had a slight advantage in cash-on-hand as of Aug. 12.

A majority of delegates to the state party convention in May voted to endorse Markey for reelection, but Moulton won enough support to qualify for Tuesday’s ballot. Markey’s other key backers include U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, as well as U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

Moulton was endorsed by The Boston Globe. He also has the support of several of his current and former Democratic House colleagues, including New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill.

Massachusetts has 14 counties, although elections are conducted at the city and town level. Suffolk County is home to Boston and is surrounded by Middlesex, Essex and Norfolk counties, which together comprise most of the Boston suburbs. Middlesex County, which is home to Cambridge, Newton, Somerville and Markey’s hometown of Malden, has the largest population in the commonwealth.

In his 2020 primary victory over Kennedy, Markey swept all four counties, which comprised about 61% of the total primary vote. He also carried most of western Massachusetts, as well as Cape Cod and the islands in the southeast.

Kennedy carried much of central Massachusetts, including Worcester County, the second most populous in the state. He also won Bristol and Plymouth counties in the southeast. Moulton will likely need to replicate or improve upon Kennedy’s success in these areas.

To defeat Markey, he’ll also need to eat into the incumbent’s advantage in the Boston area. Essex County will likely be a key battleground in that effort. Most of the county is in Moulton’s 6th Congressional District and it includes his hometown of Salem. Markey beat Kennedy in Essex County by a 9-point margin.

The 6th Congressional District also has a competitive Democratic primary underway to succeed Moulton. The six-way contest includes former Andover Selectman Dan Koh, financial technology executive John Beccia and state Rep. Tram Nguyen.

Koh has endorsements from both former President Joe Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris. He previously served in the Biden White House and was the top aide to Marty Walsh in his stints as Boston mayor and U.S. secretary of labor. In 2018, Koh ran for Congress in the neighboring 3rd District but narrowly lost the primary to now-U.S. Rep. Lori Trahan, who has endorsed Nguyen.

Koh leads the field in fundraising, with about $4.7 million in contributions. Tram was second in contributions with about $895,000 raised, but Beccia leapfrogged her in overall spending power thanks to the $4 million he loaned his campaign.

The winner will face Republican Micah Q. Jones, who is unopposed for the nomination.

In the 8th Congressional District, 13-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch faces a strong challenge from attorney Patrick Roath, who has outraised the incumbent.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, Governor’s Council, state Senate, state House and district attorney in Norfolk and Suffolk counties.

Who gets to vote?

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independents or voters not enrolled with a party may participate in either primary. Voters in what the state calls minor party “political designations” may also vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary.

How many voters are there?

As of February 2025, there were about 5 million registered voters in Massachusetts, including about 1.3 million Democrats, about 423,000 Republicans, about 3.3 million voters with no party affiliation and about 49,000 voters in minor parties.

How many people actually vote?

About 751,000 Democratic primary voters and about 270,000 Republican primary voters cast ballots in the 2022 state primaries.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 57% of the Democratic primary vote and about 32% of the Republican primary vote in the 2022 state primaries was cast early in person or by mail.

As of Thursday, about 468,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, including about 390,000 from Democrats and about 78,000 from Republicans.

When are early and absentee votes released?

Massachusetts runs elections at the town and city level. There are 351 separate jurisdictions administering local elections, and they vary in terms of how and when they release results. In many of the larger jurisdictions, results from a mix of voting methods are released together throughout the night.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 8:06 p.m. ET, or six minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 2:24 a.m. ET with about 91% of total votes counted.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

Massachusetts does not have automatic recounts. Candidates for statewide and districtwide offices may request a recount if the vote margin is not more than 0.5% of the total vote. Candidates at the town or ward level may request a recount through a signature petition. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 63 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.