Gas prices set to rise in Okanagan, Kamloops this spring

Increases to the carbon tax in BC in April will add about three cents to the price of a litre of gasoline throughout the province.

Currently, the tax is 14.3 cents per litre and will rise to 17.6 cents this year, 20.9 cents next year and 24.2 cents in 2026.

That’s just one of the factors affecting the market, which makes the price at the pump unpredictable, according to Vijay Muralidharan director and owner of R Cube Economic Consulting.

Some of these factors were also in play over the past five years, which is shown in graphs of the average weekly gas prices in Kamloops and Kelowna from 2019 through 2023.

“There are four major talking points that affect pricing in the next 12 months,” Muralidharan said. “The major talking point is what is OPEC-Plus going to do? Are they going to stick with the cuts? That is highly likely. If that is the case, we can expect the gasoline prices to be at about the current rate.”

OPEC, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, cut production last fall.

The carbon tax is another factor, along with regional refinery shutdowns for maintenance that generally trigger short-term increases in price.

The final big factor is whether Canada goes into a recession and, if so, how deep it will be. The deeper the recession, the less demand there will be for oil and, therefore, the likelihood of price reductions.

Another unknown are the impacts of conflicts in the Middle East that is disrupting traffic through the Suez Canal.

Even though that doesn’t directly affect oil imports into Canada, it is a world market with the likelihood of ripple effects all the way down to this region.

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