A look at the numbers behind finance minister’s latest economic projections

OTTAWA – Finance Minister Bill Morneau has provided another snapshot of the economy ahead of his next budget, which will be delivered March 22. He is projecting a deficit of at least $18.4 billion next year, a shortfall nearly five times his forecast last fall and well over the $10-billion limit promised during the campaign.

Here are some of Morneau’s latest numbers, based on an average of private-sector projections, compared with earlier projections from his November economic update:

Deficit

2015-16: $2.3 billion, down from $3.0 billion in the fall update.

2016-17: $18.4 billion, up from $3.9 billion.

2017-18: $15.5 billion, up from $2.4 billion.

Real GDP growth

2015-16: 1.2 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent.

2016-17: 1.4 per cent, down from 2.0 per cent.

2017-18: 2.2 per cent, equal to 2.2 per cent.

Unemployment rate

2015-16: 6.9 per cent, up from 6.8 per cent.

2016-17: 7.1 per cent, up from 6.8 per cent.

2017-18: 6.9 per cent. up from 6.6 per cent.

Inflation

2015-16: 1.1 per cent, down from 1.2 per cent.

2016-17: 1.6 per cent, down from 2.0 per cent.

2017-18: 2.0 per cent, down from 2.1 per cent.

Average oil price (US$)

2015-16: $49, unchanged.

2016-17: $40, down from $54.

2017-18: $52, down from $64.