Banks exceed expectations but they’re ‘not out of the woods’ yet: analyst

TORONTO – First-quarter results from the big Canadian banks have exceeded expectations, but analysts caution that tough economic conditions could put pressure on the lenders’ bottom lines later this year.

“I don’t think we’re out of the woods here,” said Edward Jones analyst James Shanahan.

Canadian banks are facing a slew of headwinds, including low oil prices and tight lending margins as a result of rock-bottom interest rates. Meanwhile, stretched Canadian consumers have become hesitant to take on more debt and there are concerns that the recent plunge in crude prices could increase unemployment, leading more borrowers to default on loans.

Despite the concerns, three of the five Canadian banks that reported their earnings this week — Royal Bank (TSX:RTY), CIBC and TD Bank (TSX:TD) — boosted their dividends. Only the Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) and National Bank (TSX:NA) leftdividends unchanged.

“It makes me nervous to see management teams do this, especially … at a time where we might still be in the early innings of a protracted weak credit environment,” Shanahan said.

After reporting a first-quarter profit of $923 million, CIBC (TSX:CM) said Thursday that it will now pay a quarterly dividend of $1.06 per share, up three cents, in a move that surprised investors.

The bank said the profit for the quarter ended Jan. 31 amounted to $2.28 per share compared with $1.177 billion or $2.88 per share a year ago, when CIBC benefited from the sale of half its Aeroplan credit card portfolio.

Barclays analyst John Aiken said CIBC’s domestic retail loan growth was ahead of its peers, but the bank still faces slower growth and tighter lending margins due to the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cut in January.

“While the increase in (CIBC’s) divided and yield should garner support from the income (investor) crowd, its earnings this quarter — and that of the broader group — do little to dissuade our outlook that revenue pressures are likely to continue,” Aiken said in a note to clients.

On an adjusted basis, CIBC said it earned $956 million or $2.36 per share, up from $951 million or $2.31 per share a year ago. Analysts had expected an adjusted profit of $2.27 per share.

The Wall Street Journal reported previously that CIBC cut 500 jobs in January. The bank didn’t confirm the figure at the time but did say it was realigning its resources.

CIBC has been looking to expand its wealth management and private banking business in the U.S. through an acquisition in the realm of $1 billion to $2 billion.

However, chief executive Victor Dodig said the bank has yet to find any attractive targets.

“To date, while we have been actively assessing opportunities, we have not identified anything that meets our acquisition criteria,” Dodig said. “We will be patient and remain disciplined … as we seek to deploy capital to grow our CIBC franchise.”