High-speed rail line would drive billions in economic benefits: report

MONTREAL — A high-speed rail link between Toronto and Quebec City could deliver billions of dollars in economic benefits, a new report says.

The C.D. Howe Institute study found that the promised line would generate between $15 billion and $27 billion in value for Canadians over six decades.

The biggest chunk of that sum — up to a third — would stem from user benefits, namely time savings and greater reliability than Via Rail’s spotty train service, the authors said.

Economic value would also accrue for those living in the Toronto-Quebec City corridor, with reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and road congestion as added bonuses.

“The project offers substantial economic and social benefits to Canada,” write authors David Jones and Tasnim Fariha.

The line would boost productivity and green transit as the country faces a “productivity crisis” and a push to bring down harmful emissions.

“There are, in short, significant opportunity costs to postponing or not moving ahead with this investment and perpetuating the status quo in rail service,” they state.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau moved ahead with the next phase of the high-speed rail project, announcing its trains will travel up to 300 km/h on the emissions-free network — going beyond the “high-frequency rail” system that was the initial goal.

Pledging $3.9 billion over six years for planning and design, the government said the tracks will span about 1,000 kilometres with stations in Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Montreal, Laval, Trois-Rivières and Quebec City.

The new rail system, to be known as Alto, would get travellers from Montreal to Toronto in just three hours. The government aims to iron out specifics, including the precise route and where the stations will sit in each city, before 2031.

Officials declined to peg a price tag or completion date onto the megaproject, but experts forecast the cost will run into the tens of billions, if not higher.

Friday’s report examined the two options that Ottawa had asked bidders to consider: a high-speed rail line and a slower, high-frequency line, which the study found would yield less value — between $11 billion and $17 billion.

The authors zeroed in on economic benefits based partly on ridership forecasts from Via Rail, rather than furnishing a full cost-benefit analysis.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 21, 2025.