Poland on a knife’s edge as exit polls show a near tie in presidential runoff

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Exit polls in Poland’s presidential runoff Sunday showed the two candidates in a statistical tie with the race still too close to call in the deeply divided nation. The results could set the course for the nation’s political future and its relations with the European Union.

A first exit poll showed liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski with a slight lead over conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, but two hours later an updated “late poll” showed Nawrocki winning 50.7%, more than Trzaskowski with 49.3%

The polls have a margin of error and it was still not clear who the winner was.

Claims of victory amid uncertainty

Though the final result was still unclear with the two locked in a near dead heat, both men claimed to have won in meetings with their supporters in Warsaw.

“We won,” Trzaskowski told his supporters to chants of “Rafał, Rafał.”

“This is truly a special moment in Poland’s history. I am convinced that it will allow us to move forward and focus on the future,” Trzaskowski said. “I will be your president.”

Nawrocki, speaking to his supporters at a separate event in Warsaw, said he believed he was on track to win. “We will win and save Poland,” he said. “We must win tonight.”

The final results were expected Monday.

A divided country

The decisive presidential runoff pitted Trzaskowski, a liberal pro-EU politician, against Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party and aligned with U.S. conservatives, including President Donald Trump.

The fact that it was so close underlined how deep the social divisions have become in Poland.

The outcome will determine whether Poland takes a more nationalist path or pivots more decisively toward liberal democratic norms. With conservative President Andrzej Duda completing his second and final term, the new president will have significant influence over whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government can fulfill its agenda, given the presidential power to veto laws.

“We will not allow Donald Tusk’s grip on power to be completed,” Nawrocki said.

The runoff follows a tightly contested first round of voting on May 18, in which Trzaskowski won just over 31% and Nawrocki nearly 30%, eliminating 11 other candidates.

Katarzyna Malek, a 29-year-old voter in Warsaw, cast her ballot in the first round for a left-wing candidate but went for Trzaskowski on Sunday, viewing him as more competent and more likely to pursue stronger ties with foreign partners and lower social tensions.

“I hope there will be less division, that maybe there will be more dialogue,” she said.

The campaign has highlighted stark ideological divides. Trzaskowski, 53, has promised to restore judicial independence, ease abortion restrictions and promote constructive ties with European partners. Nawrocki, 42, has positioned himself as a defender of traditional Polish values and skeptical of the EU.

Allegations against Nawrocki

Nawrocki’s candidacy has been clouded by allegations of past connections to criminal figures and participation in a violent street battle. He denies the criminal links but acknowledges having taken part in “noble” fights. The revelations have not appeared to dent his support among right-wing voters, many of whom see the allegations as politically motivated.

“We managed to unite the entire patriotic camp in Poland, the entire camp of people who want a normal Poland, want a Poland without illegal migrants, a safe Poland. We managed to unite all those who want social, community security,” Nawrocki said. It was an apparent reference to those who supported far-right candidates in the first round and who supported him on Sunday.

Some of those voting for Nawrocki in Warsaw dismissed the allegations against him, saying he shouldn’t be punished for his past and that Trzaskowski has also made mistakes as mayor.

Władysława Wąsowska, an 82-year-old former history teacher, recalled instilling patriotism in her students during the communist era, when Poland was under Moscow’s influence.

“I’m a right-wing conservative. I love God, the church and the homeland,” she said, explaining that Nawrocki for her is the only patriotic choice now, and accusing Trzaskowski of serving foreign interests.

“He’s controlled by Germany,” she said. “I want a sovereign, independent, democratic Poland — and a Catholic one.”

International echoes

Amid rising security fears over Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine, both candidates support aid to Kyiv, though Nawrocki opposes NATO membership for Ukraine, while Trzaskowski supports it in the future.

Nawrocki’s campaign has echoed themes popular on the American right, including an emphasis on traditional values. His supporters feel that Trzaskowski, with his pro-EU views, would hand over control of key Polish affairs to larger European powers like France and Germany.

Many European centrists rooted for Trzaskowski, seeing in him someone who would defend democratic values under pressure from authoritarian forces across the globe.