A former governor, a Trump and many others: Tillis retirement sets off NC Senate seat speculation

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis’ surprise retirement announcement over the weekend creates a sudden opening in next year’s midterm elections, setting off a scramble of successor speculation that includes both a former Democratic governor and a Trump other than the one who ultimately nudged Tillis into leaving.

Tillis’ decision, revealed Sunday after President Donald Trump threatened to back a primary candidate against him as Tillis opposed Medicaid reductions in the president’s tax break and spending cut package, is leading Republican politicians to size up whether they can lasso the electoral and financial support to compete for the seat.

Anyone getting a Trump endorsement is likely to have the inside track for the GOP nomination next March.

“There’s a tremendous amount of people who are looking at the position and trying to determine whether they have the fire in belly to run for it,” state Rep. John Torbett said on Monday.

Democrats waiting on Cooper

The absence of an incumbent emboldens national and state Democrats in their bid to flip back the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage. A Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson said Tillis’ announcement was “another blow to Republicans’ chances as they face a midterm backlash that puts their majority at risk.”

But it’s still unclear whether their most high-profile potential candidate — former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper — is going to run. He hasn’t publicly revealed his plans, even though former U.S. Rep. Wiley Nickel launched his own bid almost three months ago.

Cooper left office last December as a popular figure — mentioned briefly as a vice presidential choice for Kamala Harris — who has never lost an election for state office, dating to the mid-1980s. He was elected attorney general four times and is known for his fundraising prowess.

Cooper spokesperson Morgan Jackson said Monday that Cooper “continues to strongly consider a run for the Senate and will decide in the coming weeks.”

Nickel’s campaign didn’t respond Monday to a message seeking comment, but Nickel said Sunday that “no matter which MAGA loyalist Donald Trump handpicks to run in North Carolina, I’m the Democrat who’s ready to take them on and win.”

Veteran Democratic consultant Gary Pearce said Tillis’ departure makes it imperative that Cooper get in the race: “We can’t let a Trump toady take that seat.”

Still, Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in the ninth-largest state since 2008. That includes when Trump, as a former president, publicly endorsed then-U.S. Rep. Ted Budd for the GOP nomination nearly a year before the 2022 primary. Budd defeated former Gov. Pat McCrory in the primary by 34 percentage points.

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said North Carolina voters would next year “elect a conservative leader committed to advancing an agenda of opportunity, prosperity, and security.”

Whatley, Lara Trump, Harrigan garner GOP attention

The list of potential Republican candidates floating on social media appears long, with two close Trump allies among those mentioned often — current Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley and former RNC co-chair Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law. Neither has publicly spoken about the seat.

Both are originally from North Carolina, with Whatley a former chief of staff to then-U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole and later state GOP chair before he was elevated to the RNC post last year.

Whatley is considered by national Republicans to be a potentially formidable candidate in the state, given his wide network of relationships, strong fundraising record and the fact that he doesn’t have the baggage of past votes to explain.

Whatley, according to a person familiar with his thinking, is honored to have the RNC position and is neither actively considering nor putting out feelers for the Senate race. He sees his primary job as helping the White House find the right candidate, but also would not reject being considered, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record.

Lara Trump now lives in Florida and anchors a weekly Fox News show. Having a Trump on the ballot in an off-year is seen as a potential boon for the party by national Republicans, though it remains unclear whether she will want to purse a run. She declined to run for the U.S. Senate in North Carolina in 2022 and in 2024 took herself out of the running to fill the term of Marco Rubio as he became secretary of state.

Another candidate mentioned often is first-term U.S. Rep. Pat Harrigan, a West Point graduate and former Green Beret who served in Afghanistan and later became a defense-products manufacturer. A Harrigan political consultant is a former Tillis aide.

Tillis told The Associated Press Monday that he would likely get involved in the race for his replacement and said, ideally, Senate Republicans and the White House will land on a candidate who can win.

“I know a lot about the state of North Carolina,” he said, “and I got a pretty good idea of the profile you need to win.”

Tillis declined to name favorites but advised would-be candidates to hold off on declaring their candidacies until close to the December filing deadline when, he argued, the political dynamics will be clearer.

Tillis has history of far-right critiques, close elections

Tillis’ retirement announcement — he will serve out the last 18 months of his term — heartened far-right Republicans and strong Trump supporters who have been unhappy for years with his willingness to challenge Trump’s actions and his Cabinet agency choices.

Tillis sent Trump a text message on Saturday night, alerting him that he would not be running for reelection by telling the president: “Start thinking about my replacement.”

Trump responded in the text, a copy of which was seen by The Associated Press: “I am! DJT.”

Trump and his team have already targeted one Republican incumbent: Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, launching a new super PAC devoted to defeating him that has already released an ad lambasting him.

While praised for pushing a conservative agenda as state House speaker, Tillis faced strong primary opponents in his first Senate bid in 2014 based on accusations that he was too moderate. But he avoided a significant challenge in the 2020 GOP primary and won two general elections by narrow margins over then-Sen. Kay Hagan and later challenger Cal Cunningham.

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Colvin reported from New York. Associated Press writer Seung Min Kim in Washington contributed to this report.