College Football picks: USF bidding for Group of Five supremacy as it heads to Swamp to face Gators

The Boise State Broncos, long the king of the Group of Five schools, could be on the cusp of ceding the throne to the team that just beat them.

Alex Golesh has been quietly building South Florida since 2023, when he took over a program that had won a total of 15 games over five years.

He put together back-to-back 7-6 seasons that ended with bowl wins and will go into Saturday’s game at No. 13 Florida with a dynamic quarterback in Byrum Brown, a retooled defense and the boost of confidence that comes with last week’s 34-7 win over then-No. 25 Boise State.

The Broncos were a trendy preseason pick to earn the College Football Playoff spot that goes to the highest ranked G5 conference champion for a second straight year. With USF playing three straight ranked opponents to start the season, the Bulls are working to build credibility with the selection committee. So far, so good. And they can keep helping themselves by keeping it close against the Gators or upsetting them and doing the same next week at No. 5 Miami.

The Hurricanes are among a number of heavily favored ranked teams playing FCS teams this week. So here are the picks for this week’s FBS vs. FBS games, with Associated Press Top 25 rankings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

Florida International (plus 41 1/2) at No. 2 Penn State

When you get points on the first nine possessions, like the Nittany Lions did against Nevada, it’s hard to find areas that need cleaning up. If there’s one thing Penn State would like to see, it’s more production from the run game this week.

Pick: Penn State 45-7.

Louisiana Tech at No. 3 LSU (minus 37 1/2)

This game falls between Clemson and Florida on the schedule, but it’s no trap. The Garrett Nussmeier-led offense got traction in the second half against Clemson, and Harold Perkins Jr. and Whit Weeks lead a defense that could be the nation’s best.

Pick: LSU 52-3.

Oklahoma State at No. 6 Oregon (minus 28 1/2)

Since Oregon outspends Oklahoma State $40 million to $7 million in NIL, by Cowboys coach Mike Gundy’s estimation, let’s go with that on the scoreboard.

Pick: Oregon 40-7.

San Jose State at No. 7 Texas (minus 36 1/2)

The feeling here is the Longhorns will take out some frustration on the Spartans after what happened at Ohio State. Arch Manning should make strides over the next three games and have Texas contending in the SEC as expected.

Pick: Texas 47-3.

Troy at No. 8 Clemson (minus 33 1/2)

The last time the Trojans went to Death Valley, in 2016, they put a scare into a second-ranked Clemson and lost 30-24. It won’t be that close this time. Cade Klubnik and the Tigers get well after being held to 10 points by LSU.

Pick: Clemson 44-6.

No. 11 Illinois (minus 3) at Duke

This should be the best of Bret Bielema’s five teams, and the Illini are a bit under the radar for a team that has its highest ranking since 2001. Duke tussled with Elon into the middle of the third quarter last week.

Pick: Illinois 31-21.

No. 12 Arizona State at Mississippi State (plus 6 1/2)

Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham talked this week about the challenges of traveling to Starkville, and he blared ringing cowbells through loudspeakers at practice to prepare his players for what awaits. Seems like a good time for Bulldogs to beat a top-15 team for the first time in four years.

Pick: Mississippi State 28-24.

South Florida (plus 17 1/2) at No. 13 Florida

Gators came out of last season on a roll and kept it going with a 55-0 shutout against an overmatched Long Island U. The Bulls raised eyebrows with their beat-down of Boise State.

Pick: Florida 35-27.

No. 15 Michigan at No. 18 Oklahoma (minus 5 1/2)

These are two proud programs looking to get their mojo back. QB Bryce Underwood is a game-changer, but beating the Sooners in Norman at night might be a little too much to ask at the moment.

Pick: Oklahoma 28-21.

Iowa at No. 16 Iowa State (minus 3)

Perhaps Iowa State QB Rocco Becht isn’t talked about enough nationally. He got the Cyclones to the Big 12 championship game last year and, judging by his start, he just might do it again.

Pick: Iowa State 24-17.

Baylor (plus 2 1/2) at No. 17 SMU

The Bears’ Sawyer Robertson threw for more than 400 yards and three touchdowns in a loss to Auburn last week. SMU has averaged 48.3 points per game while winning 15 of their last 16 at home.

Pick: Baylor 45-43.

Utah State at No. 19 Texas A&M (minus 31 1/2)

The Aggies are coming off a ho-hum win over UTSA in which they allowed 203 yards rushing, the most by a Group of Five opponent since 2021.

Pick: Texas A&M 47-9.

No. 20 Mississippi (minus 10) at Kentucky

Rebels are still smarting from last year’s 20-17 home loss to Kentucky that, in part, kept them out of the CFP. They tuned up for the trip to Lexington with a 63-7 win over Georgia State that made them the first SEC team to score at least 60 in three straight season openers.

Pick: Mississippi 33-21.

Louisiana-Monroe at No. 21 Alabama (minus 37 1/2)

It’s bounce-back week for Kalen DeBoer’s team. The Crimson Tide got outplayed in the trenches by Florida State last week and at times looked almost apathetic. With a trip to Georgia at the end of the month, DeBoer needs to create some urgency now.

Pick: Alabama 49-10.

Kennesaw State (plus 35 1/2) at No. 23 Indiana

Hoosiers totaled 502 yards, 309 on the ground, yet won just 27-14 over Old Dominion. They got into the red zone seven times and scored just two touchdowns. That undoubtedly is this week’s point of emphasis.

Pick: Indiana 35-7.

Kent State at No. 24 Texas Tech (minus 48 1/2)

Texas Tech has scored at least 50 points in three straight games with Behren Morton starting at quarterback. Kent State has allowed 41.4 points per game against FBS opponents since 2023, the worst mark in the nation.

Pick: Texas Tech 62-10.

AP predictions scorecard

Last week: Straight-up — 10-3; Against spread — 5-8.

Season: Straight-up — 10-3; Against spread — 5-8.

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