Pro Picks: Steelers will edge the Packers to give Aaron Rodgers a victory over his former team

Aaron Rodgers already beat one former team. Now, he’s going against his original one.

Rodgers faces the Green Bay Packers for the first time when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The four-time NFL MVP led the Packers to a Super Bowl title 15 years ago and was traded to the New York Jets in 2023.

Rodgers and the Steelers (4-2) beat the Jets in Week 1. The Packers (4-1-1) present a more difficult challenge.

Micah Parsons, who didn’t get the win against his old team, was unblockable last week, registering three sacks. He should give Rodgers trouble all night.

But the Packers haven’t been dominant since Week 1. They lost to the Browns, tied the Cowboys and had to rally to beat the Cardinals.

The Steelers are coming off extra rest following a loss to the Bengals.

Green Bay is a 3-point favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook. Pro Picks likes the upset.

UPSET SPECIAL: STEELERS: 24-23

SAN FRANCISCO (5-2) at HOUSTON (2-4)

Line: Texans minus 1 1/2

The 49ers are 4-1 with Mac Jones filling in for Brock Purdy. Christian McCaffery is doing everything for an offense missing several receivers. Even without stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, San Francisco’s defense excelled against Atlanta. Houston’s offense has held the team back while the defense has been formidable. The offensive line is still struggling to protect C.J. Stroud and the run game is lacking. The 49ers are 1-13 against the spread in their last 14 games following a win.

BEST BET: TEXANS: 23-18

MINNESOTA (3-3) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (4-3)

Line: Chargers minus 3 1/2

Carson Wentz makes his fifth start for J.J. McCarthy. He’s been good in wins, erratic in a loss to the Eagles last week. If he protects the ball, Wentz usually has success. Wentz is 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in his career on Thursdays. The Vikings need to fix a defense that gave up too many big plays passing. Justin Herbert and the Chargers have lost three of four. Underdogs have won outright three straight Thursdays.

CHARGERS: 23-22

TAMPA BAY (5-2) at NEW ORLEANS (1-6)

Line: Buccaneers minus 4

Baker Mayfield is coming off his worst game of the season and the Buccaneers lost Mike Evans for a significant period. But they have talented playmakers to help them overcome a big loss. They just need other stars to get healthy. The struggling Saints present a bounce-back opportunity for Tampa Bay, which has won five of the last six meetings. QB Spencer Rattler is 0-6 ATS as a home underdog.

BUCCANEERS: 24-17

NEW YORK JETS (0-7) at CINCINNATI (3-4)

Line: Bengals minus 6 1/2

Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor? The Jets have been dismal no matter who is under center. Joe Flacco has rejuvenated Cincinnati’s offense. But the Bengals are 2-5 ATS on extra rest under coach Zac Taylor with backup quarterbacks.

BENGALS: 23-18

CLEVELAND (2-5) at NEW ENGLAND (5-2)

Line: Patriots minus 7

Myles Garrett and Cleveland’s top-ranked defense present a tough challenge for Drake Maye and the Patriots. Rookie RB Quinshon Judkins is coming off a three-TD game, taking pressure off rookie QB Dillon Gabriel. Maye has been outstanding for the Patriots and Mike Vrabel has turned the team around quickly. The Browns are 0-14 straight up, 1-13 ATS when they allow three sacks or more.

PATRIOTS: 23-17

BUFFALO (4-2) at CAROLINA (4-3)

Line: Bills minus 7 1/2

Josh Allen and the Bills had an extra week to reflect on two straight losses. They’ll be eager to get back on track. The Panthers have won three in a row and are unbeaten in three games at home but Bryce Young is dealing with an ankle injury.

BILLS: 27-18

CHICAGO (4-2) at BALTIMORE (1-5)

Line: Ravens minus 6 1/2

Ben Johnson has led the Bears to four straight wins. D’Andre Swift has run wild while Caleb Williams is still inconsistent, and the defense is forcing turnovers at a fast pace with 15 in the last four games. A bye came at the right time for injury-riddled Baltimore. Lamar Jackson should be back for the Ravens, who are big favorites despite a terrible start. Jackson has lost two straight against NFC opponents after going 23-1.

RAVENS: 29-20

MIAMI (1-6) at ATLANTA (3-3)

Line: Falcons minus 7

The Dolphins are a mess and it seems like a matter of time before coach Mike McDaniel is out. The up-and-down Falcons need to rebound again after a lackluster offensive effort vs. San Francisco. Bijan Robinson was held under 100 scrimmage yards for the first time in that game. He could go over 200 against Miami. Tua Tagovailoa is 1-9 straight up in his last 10 road games.

FALCONS: 28-18

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-5) at PHILADELPHIA (5-2)

Line: Eagles minus 7

Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo and the Giants dominated the Eagles a couple weeks ago. Now they’re coming off a devastating loss where the defense blew an 18-point lead in the final 6 minutes at Denver. Jalen Hurts was flawless and the passing attack broke out against Minnesota. The Eagles are still waiting for Saquon Barkley and the run game to get going. Hurts is 28-4 straight up as a favorite at home.

EAGLES: 31-22

DALLAS (3-3-1) at DENVER (5-2)

Line: Broncos minus 3

Dak Prescott is leading the NFL’s top-ranked offense. But the problem for the Cowboys is their 32nd-ranked defense. Denver has the No. 3 defense, which presents a big challenge for Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. The Cowboys haven’t defeated the Broncos since 1995, going 0-7.

BRONCOS: 27-22

TENNESSEE (1-6) at INDIANAPOLIS (6-1)

Line: Colts minus 14

The Titans showed some positive signs with a fast start under interim coach Mike McCoy before things fell apart last week. Cam Ward is getting sacked too much and turning the ball over. The Colts have been the NFL’s biggest surprise behind Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor. Indianapolis has won five straight against Tennessee and has covered the spread each time.

COLTS: 29-16

WASHINGTON (3-4) at KANSAS CITY (4-3)

Line: Chiefs minus 12 1/2

Jayden Daniels is dealing with a hamstring injury for the Commanders, who would match last season’s loss total if they don’t pull off a major upset. Patrick Mahomes has all his playmakers, the defense is stout and the Chiefs are playing like Super Bowl contenders.

CHIEFS: 27-16

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Last week: Straight up: 13-2. Against spread: 8-7.

Overall: Straight up: 79-28-1. Against spread: 55-52-1.

Prime-time: Straight up: 14-11-1. Against spread: 12-14.

Best Bet: Straight up: 6-1. Against spread: 5-2.

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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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