Iraq faces elections at a delicate moment in the Middle East

BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraq is weeks away from parliamentary elections that will set the country’s course during one of the Middle East’s most delicate moments in years.

While the ceasefire in Gaza may have tamped down regional tensions, fears remain of another round of conflict between Israel and Iraq’s neighbor, Iran. Iraq managed to stay on the sidelines during the brief Israel-Iran war in June.

Meanwhile, Baghdad faces increasing pressure from Washington over the presence of Iran-linked armed groups in Iraq.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani came to power in 2022 with the backing of a group of pro-Iran parties but has since sought to balance Iraq’s relations with Tehran and Washington.

The Nov. 11 vote will determine whether he gets a second term — rare for Iraqi premiers in the past.

Who’s missing from the elections

A total of 7,768 candidates — 2,248 women and 5,520 men — are competing for 329 parliament seats.

The strongest political factions running include Shiite blocs led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, cleric Ammar al-Hakim, and several linked to armed groups; competing Sunni factions led by former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and current speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadan i; and the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

The contest is just as notable for who is absent.

The popular Sadrist Movement, led by influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, is boycotting. Al-Sadr’s bloc won the largest number of seats in the 2021 elections but later withdrew after failed negotiations over forming a government, and it continues to stay out of elections.

In the suburb known as Sadr City on Baghdad’s outskirts, a banner posted on one street read, “We are all boycotting upon orders from leader al-Sadr. No to America, no to Israel, no to corruption.”

The Victory Coalition, a smaller group led by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, also announced a boycott, alleging corruption in the process.

Meanwhile, some reformist groups emerging from mass anti-government protests that began in October 2019 are participating but have been bogged down by internal divisions and lack of funding and political support.

Vote-buying and political violence

There have been widespread allegations of corruption and vote-buying. Political analyst Bassem al-Qazwini described these elections as “the most exploited since 2003 in terms of political money and state resources.”

A campaign official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was talking about alleged illegal conduct, asserted that almost all candidates, including major blocs, are distributing money and buying voter cards, with the price of a card going as high as 300,000 Iraqi dinars (around $200).

The Independent High Electoral Commission asserted its commitment to conducting a fair and transparent process, saying in a statement to The Associated Press that “strict measures have been taken to monitor campaign spending and curb vote-buying.”

It added that any candidate found guilty of violating laws or buying votes will be “immediately disqualified.”

Campaigning has been marred by political violence.

On Oct. 15, Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al-Mashhadani, a Sunni candidate in the al-Tarmiya district north of the capital, was killed by a car bomb. Two people were arrested on suspicion of the killing, the First Karkh Investigative Court said Thursday. It did not name the suspects but said the crime was believed to be “related to electoral competition.”

Aisha Ghazal Al-Masari, a member of parliament from the Sovereignty Alliance to which al-Mashhadani belonged, described the killing as “a cowardly crime reminiscent of the dark days of assassinations,” referring to the years of security vacuum after Iraq’s former autocratic leader, Saddam Hussein, was ousted in the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

The role of militias

Political parties linked to Iran-backed militias are leveraging their significant military and financial influence.

They include the Kataib Hezbollah militia, with its Harakat Huqouq (Rights Movement) bloc, and the Sadiqoun Bloc led by the leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, Qais al-Khazali.

The Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of militias that formed to fight the Islamic State group, was formally placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016 but in practice still operates with significant autonomy.

Al-Sudani told journalists recently that armed factions that have transformed into political entities have the constitutional right to participate in elections.

“We cannot prevent any group from engaging in politics if they renounce arms. This is a step in the right direction,” he said.

However, several militias with affiliated political parties participating in the elections are still active and armed.

The U.S. State Department said in a statement that Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with al-Sudani on Monday and “highlighted the urgency in disarming Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty, threaten the lives and businesses of Americans and Iraqis, and pilfer Iraqi resources for Iran.”

Al-Sudani seeks another term

Al-Sudani has positioned himself as a pragmatist focused on improving public services. Polling shows that Iraqis are relatively positive about the country’s situation.

Al-Mustakella Research Group, affiliated with Gallup International Association, found that over the past two years, for the first time since 2004, more than half of Iraqis polled believed the country is heading in the right direction.

In the latest poll, in early 2025, 55% of Iraqis surveyed said they had confidence in the central government.

However, only one Iraqi prime minister, Maliki, has served more than one term since 2003.

Ihsan al-Shammari, professor of strategic and international studies at Baghdad University, said that the premiership “does not depend solely on election results but on political bloc agreements and regional and international understandings” to form a government.

He added that disagreements over control of state institutions that have arisen between al-Sudani and some leaders in the Shiite Coordination Framework bloc that brought him to power “may hinder his chances of a second term.”

Some Iraqis said they don’t have high hopes for the country, no matter what the election outcome.

Baghdad resident Saif Ali said he does not plan to vote, pointing to lagging public services.

“What happened with regards to electricity from 2003 until now? Nothing,” he said, referring to regular power cuts. ”What happened with water? Drought has reached Baghdad. These are the basic services, and they are not available, so what is the point of elections?”