Modi’s coalition set for big win in a key state election, bolstering his popularity

NEW DELHI (AP) — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition is headed to win a key state election in a vote seen as a crucial test of Modi’s popularity in one of the country’s poorest yet most politically influential states.

Partial results Friday from the Election Commission of India, the country’s election watchdog, showed the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, or NDA, expected to take 208 seats of the 243-member legislature in the eastern state of Bihar.

A simple majority to form the government is 122. Modi’s party alone is forecast to take 95 seats.

A victory in Bihar, the country’s third-most populous state with nearly 130 million people, is crucial as it sends the fourth-highest number of lawmakers to the lower house of parliament.

Its control strengthens the party in power as the state is seen as a political bellwether, setting political trends across India’s Hindi-speaking heartland.

This year, the two-phase election was held amid widespread public concerns over unemployment, law and order, and alleged irregularities in revision of electoral rolls.

It saw hard-fought campaigns marked by mass rallies, aggressive welfare messaging and personal outreach to voters, both by Modi and his opponents.

As the NDA led in the initial counting, celebrations erupted in the state capital, Patna, with supporters waving party flags, dancing to the beats of drums and setting off firecrackers.

The election in the agrarian state was a crucial test for Modi as he sought to build momentum ahead of national elections in 2029 and key state polls in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Assam over the next two years.

The victory would give a timely lift to the federal government, which continues to govern without a full parliamentary majority since last year’s national election forced the ruling party to rely on regional allies.

Modi’s party forged an alliance with Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas) to form the federal government. These alliances are Modi’s key partners in Bihar too.

“It will give a great comfort to Modi to get Bihar under his belt. It will provide more stability to the government at the center,” said Neerja Chowdhury, a political analyst.

The BJP leads Bihar’s ruling alliance, with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) at the helm. Kumar, 74, has governed for nearly two decades, and is credited with improving the state’s infrastructure and ending its law-and-order problems.

Once an opponent of Modi, Kumar later rejoined the BJP-led NDA

There were apprehensions that a loss in Bihar could possibly split Kumar’s party and threaten Modi’s federal coalition, which relies on 12 of his lawmakers.