Pro Picks: Texans will upset the Colts to tighten the race in the AFC South

Suddenly the AFC South is a three-team race.

With the Colts (8-3) losing two of three, the door is open for the Jaguars (7-4) and the Texans (6-5).

Indianapolis will play both division rivals twice over the final six games, starting with a home game Sunday against Houston.

It’s the biggest matchup in the NFL’s Week 13 schedule outside of the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games.

A stifling defense has helped the Texans get back over .500 after an 0-3 start. Backup QB Davis Mills has played well, going 3-0 for C.J. Stroud, who has been dealing with a concussion. Stroud is expected to return this week, though he was still in concussion protocol on Wednesday.

The Colts needed overtime to beat the Falcons two weeks ago in their only win over the past three games and blew a 20-9 lead in the fourth quarter at Kansas City.

Daniel Jones couldn’t make a play when coach Shane Steichen put the ball in his hands instead of giving it to Jonathan Taylor on three, three-and-outs in the fourth quarter.

The Colts are 4 1/2-point favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook. Pro Picks likes the upset.

UPSET SPECIAL: TEXANS, 19-17

LOS ANGELES RAMS (9-2) at CAROLINA (6-6)

Line: Rams minus 10

Matthew Stafford has thrown 27 touchdowns since his most recent interception in Week 3. A suffocating defense that’s No. 1 in scoring has helped the Rams take over the No. 1 spot in the NFC. The Panthers had a chance to move into first place in the NFC South but Bryce Young and the offense couldn’t do anything against San Francisco despite three picks by the defense in the first half. The Rams are 8-3 ATS, including 4-1 on the road.

BEST BET: RAMS: 31-16

GREEN BAY (7-3-1) at DETROIT (7-4)

Line: Lions minus 2 1/2

The Packers have won two straight, the defense led by Micah Parsons is dominating and they’re underdogs for the first time this season. The Lions had to rally to beat the lowly Giants after a poor offensive performance in a loss at Philadelphia. They’re looking to avoid getting swept by Green Bay. Detroit is 6-2 in the past eight meetings. The Packers are 20-18 overall and 25-13-1 against the spread as an underdog under coach Matt LaFleur.

LIONS: 24-20

KANSAS CITY (6-5) at DALLAS (5-5-1)

Line: Chiefs minus 3

A relentless defense helped the Chiefs save their season with Patrick Mahomes rallying them to a win against the Colts. They’re facing another team just as desperate. Dak Prescott led Dallas back from a 21-0 deficit against the Eagles. Mahomes is 19-3 overall in games in which the team has short rest. The Cowboys are 3-11 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2011.

BEST BET: CHIEFS 29-23

CINCINNATI (3-8) at BALTIMORE (6-5)

Line: Ravens minus 7

Joe Burrow is expected to return for the Bengals but it’s too late to make a difference this season other than playing spoiler. Lamar Jackson has been slowed by injuries but the Ravens have won five in a row to get back on top in the AFC North. Jackson is 6-1 vs. Burrow.

RAVENS: 26-20

CHICAGO (8-3) at PHILADELPHIA (8-3)

Line: Eagles minus 7

The Bears have won eight of nine, including six games by a margin of five points or fewer. The reigning Super Bowl champions collapsed in Dallas, wasting a 21-0 lead, adding more drama in a season where they’ve been winning despite a mediocre offense. Jalen Hurts is 30-4 overall at home as a favorite. Chicago isn’t getting much respect from oddsmakers.

EAGLES: 27-17

JACKSONVILLE (7-4) at TENNESSEE (1-10)

Line: Jaguars minus 6 1/2

The Jaguars needed overtime to beat the struggling Cardinals on the road a week after dominating the Chargers. They can’t afford a letdown against the woeful Titans in the first of two meetings between the division foes. Only wins matter but Tennessee stayed close against Seattle and is 5-6 ATS this season.

JAGUARS: 23-18

SAN FRANCISCO (8-4) at CLEVELAND (3-8)

Line: 49ers minus 5

Brock Purdy threw three interceptions and the 49ers still held Carolina to only nine points on Monday night. San Francisco is 1-6 ATS after a win this season. Shedeur Sanders showed promise in his first NFL start for the Browns and Myles Garrett is on pace to shatter the single-season sacks record.

49ERS: 20-16

NEW ORLEANS (2-9) at MIAMI (4-7)

Line: Dolphins minus 6

The rebuilding Saints aren’t doing much right except stopping the opposition’s passing attack. The Dolphins have won two in a row, three of four and are coming off a bye. They’re still playing to save coach Mike McDaniel’s job.

DOLPHINS: 20-16

ATLANTA (4-7) at NEW YORK JETS (2-9)

Line: Falcons minus 2 1/2

Kirk Cousins led the Falcons to victory in New Orleans and Atlanta suddenly has a chance in the NFC South with the Buccaneers losing three in a row. The rebuilding Jets contained Derrick Henry and now face Bijan Robinson. But their defense has one takeaway this season and Tyrod Taylor couldn’t get the offense going.

FALCONS: 22-16

ARIZONA (3-8) at TAMPA BAY (6-5)

Line: Buccaneers minus 2 1/2

The Cardinals somehow managed to lose a game in overtime in which they had four takeaways and no turnovers. Jacoby Brissett could have success against a poor Buccaneers defense. Tampa Bay needs Baker Mayfield to play through a shoulder injury to have a chance because an injury-riddled offense is going to have to outscore teams to overcome a leaky defense.

BUCCANEERS: 27-20

MINNESOTA (4-7) at SEATTLE (8-3)

Line: Seahawks minus 10 1/2

It’s the Sam Darnold Bowl. Darnold thrived under Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell last season but was allowed to leave in free agency to pave the way for J.J. McCarthy, who has struggled and is in concussion protocol. Undrafted rookie Max Brosmer would start if McCarthy can’t play. Darnold has Seattle battling for first place in the NFC West.

SEAHAWKS: 27-13

BUFFALO (7-4) at PITTSBURGH (6-5)

Line: Bills minus 4

Josh Allen and the Bills are coming off a frustrating loss to Houston after the reigning NFL MVP had a six-TD performance against Tampa Bay. Buffalo added veteran receiver Brandin Cooks to bolster a mediocre group. The Steelers are reeling, having lost four of six to allow the Ravens to catch up. Aaron Rodgers is expected to return for Pittsburgh after sitting out a loss at Chicago because of a broken left wrist.

BILLS: 23-20

LAS VEGAS (2-9) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (7-4)

Line: Chargers minus 9 1/2

The Raiders would’ve been better off with part-owner Tom Brady in a dual role of quarterback and offensive coordinator than going with Chip Kelly and Geno Smith. Kelly was fired after the latest dismal loss. The Chargers had a week off to reflect on a lopsided loss to the Jaguars. A depleted offensive line has been problematic for Justin Herbert and Los Angeles’ run game. The Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their past seven games vs. AFC West opponents.

CHARGERS: 30-13

DENVER (9-2) at WASHINGTON (3-8)

Line: Broncos minus 5 1/2

Two teams coming off a bye heading in opposite directions. The Broncos have won eight in a row. The Commanders have lost six straight. Unless a week off slowed Denver’s momentum, the Broncos shouldn’t have any trouble. Jayden Daniels returned to practice but isn’t expected to be cleared to play. Broncos QB Bo Nix is 7-1 overall vs. the NFC.

BRONCOS: 23-16

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-10) at NEW ENGLAND (10-2)

Line: Patriots minus 7 1/2

The Giants blew another lead in the fourth quarter, fired their defensive coordinator and can’t start the offseason soon enough. A nine-game winning streak has the Patriots leading the AFC. Drake Maye gets to make his case for NFL MVP in front of a national audience on Monday night.

PATRIOTS: 30-20

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Last week: Straight up: 12-2. Against spread: 5-6-3.

Overall: Straight up: 130-47-1. Against spread: 89-83-6.

Prime time: Straight up: 25-15-1. Against spread: 17-24.

Best Bet: Straight up: 10-2. Against spread: 7-4-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 9-3. Against spread: 9-3.

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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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