Budget office sees modest boost in housing supply from Build Canada Homes

OTTAWA — Housing Minister Gregor Robertson said the federal government’s new housing agency is just getting started after the parliamentary budget office said in a new analysis Tuesday that Build Canada Homes will only fill a small gap in the housing market.

The Liberals launched Build Canada Homes in September and tasked the new federal agency with boosting the total stock of affordable housing with an initial $13 billion in funding for loans, financing and land acquisition.

The budget office said in a report Tuesday that Build Canada Homes is projected to add 26,000 units to the total housing supply across the country over the next five years, half of which would be affordable homes for low-income Canadians.

That represents an increase of 2.1 per cent over the PBO’s baseline projection for new home construction over that period.

It also accounts for only 3.7 per cent of the roughly 690,000 units the PBO estimates are needed to restore housing affordability over the next decade.

While the Liberals have promised to double the pace of housing construction, the budget office noted in its report the government hasn’t released a complete plan to achieve that goal.

Robertson told reporters on his way out of the Liberal cabinet meeting Tuesday that he hadn’t read the PBO report yet.

But he said he expects the office’s figures don’t incorporate the federal budget’s $51-billion local infrastructure fund and other efforts from Build Canada Home to stimulate housing spending from provinces and the private sector.

“This is just the beginning with Build Canada Homes. We will be scaling that work, bringing the capital to the table so we can build on affordable housing at at an unprecedented scale,” he said.

The PBO also warned overall federal housing spending is set to decline by 56 per cent over the next three years without renewed commitments to existing programs.

New funding for Build Canada Homes only partially offsets other programs that are set to expire or haven’t been publicly renewed yet, the office said.

The report flags expiring funding agreements for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. under the Liberals’ national housing strategy. That includes the $4.4 billion housing accelerator fund — a flagship program under the Justin Trudeau government — which has funding set out to the end of 2028.

Interim parliamentary budget officer Jason Jacques told the Senate’s national finance committee on Tuesday the government did not respond to his office’s questions about which programs are being cut or wound down in the context of spending reductions across the public service.

The PBO’s projections are based on public announcements, corporate plans issued by the CMHC and any details offered in the federal budget tabled last month, he said.

“If not addressed, the current public data indicates that we’re on track for a substantial decrease in … federal spending in this area,” Jacques said.

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne defended “historical” housing spending in Budget 2025 on his way out of the cabinet meeting Tuesday. He told reporters he respects the PBO’s work but added that “sometimes you need a bit of nuance.”

Champagne said that future budgets will update spending priorities in the coming years and cautioned not to “pre-judge” any of those commitments.

“You don’t take decisions for ‘29 in ‘25,” he said.

“We’re going to do the work now and we’ll take the decisions that are going to be needed as we go forward.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 2, 2025.