Who will win at the Oscars? AP’s film writers make their predictions

The Oscars just got more interesting. With a few late-game curveballs, courtesy of the Actor Awards, the broadcast of the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday, March 15, may have more drama and heartbreak than expected even just last week.

As members of the film academy fill out their ballots before Thursday’s 8 p.m. Eastern deadline, Associated Press film writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle are making their final predictions for the top awards too.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: “Bugonia”; “F1”; “Frankenstein”; “Hamnet”; “Marty Supreme”; “One Battle After Another”; “The Secret Agent”; “Sentimental Value”; “Sinners”; “Train Dreams”

BAHR: “One Battle After Another” was coasting along the rolling hills of awards season as the clear front-runner, winning top prizes at the Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, BAFTAs and the Golden Globes, right up until Sunday’s Actor Awards. In this tortured, inherently flawed metaphor that I’m already regretting, I guess “Sinners,” which won best ensemble, is Willa’s car?

The point is, suddenly, the Oscars don’t seem so buttoned up after all. I still think it’s going to be “One Battle After Another,” though. The award previously known as SAG has diverged five times in the past 10 shows; the PGAs are a slightly better predictor, having gone another way only twice in 10 years. And either way, it’ll be a win for theatrical moviegoing and Warner Bros., no matter how uncertain their futures may be.

COYLE: I love your metaphor, just as long as it doesn’t careen onto the “F1” racetrack. This has always felt like a two-horse race, only “Sinners” didn’t have much to show for itself until those big wins at the Actor Awards. That Michael B. Jordan also won gives me some pause. The breakthrough for “Sinners” came at just the right time, when Oscar voters were sending in their ballots. So I think “Sinners” has an excellent chance of pulling off the upset. But ultimately I think “One Battle After Another” wins. It has the more meaningful precursors and feels powerfully of the moment.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”; Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”; Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”; Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”; Emma Stone, “Bugonia”

COYLE: This is the easiest call of the night. Buckley will win her first Oscar, and while I think she’s excellent in “Hamnet,” this feels as much about rewarding one of the most talented and natural actors of a generation. Since she emerged in 2019’s “Wild Rose,” Buckley has been heading toward this. Plus, making people cry bucket loads is still an effective way to win an Oscar.

BAHR: You were definitely on Buckley watch earlier than most. I’m pretty sure I saw “Wild Rose” on your recommendation. And I agree, the Oscar is basically hers already.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”; Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”; Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”; Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

BAHR: For a while there, it seemed like Chalamet had it in the bag, especially after he lost last year and we were punished with that Adrien Brody speech. But then there was the BAFTAs shocker where none of the Hollywood guys won, followed by Jordan’s truly heartfelt speech at the Actor Awards that might have tipped the scale in his direction. Personally, I don’t think there’s a wrong choice in this group, but it will be an interesting case study in campaigning if Jordan ends up taking the statue, which I think he will.

COYLE: I suspect many in the academy would like to go back a year and give Chalamet the award, but their regret might not be enough to get him across the finish line this year. It’s been 22 years since we had a best actor winner (Sean Penn for “Mystic River”) who didn’t win at either the BAFTAs or with the actors guild. Jordan is going to win, and I think it will be a highlight of the night. Unlike others in this category, Jordan has really been under-honored. This is his first Oscar nomination.

BEST SUPPORING ACTRESS

Nominees: Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”; Amy Madigan, “Weapons”; Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”; Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

COYLE: This should be close. Three nominees have notable wins so far: Madigan with the Actor Award, Mosaku at the BAFTAs and Taylor at the Globes. If it were my choice, it’d be Taylor in a landslide. She’s absurdly blistering in “One Battle After Another.” Madigan, a well-liked veteran in a category full of younger performers, would seem to have the slight edge after her win, and charming speech, at the Actor Awards. But I’m going to say Taylor takes it. Madigan has the disadvantage of being the sole nominee from her film. Being such a key part of what I think will be the best picture winner will carry Taylor to the upset.

BAHR: Madigan’s Oscar win might have been the nomination from an organization that doesn’t have the best track record with horror. I agree that it’s Taylor we’ll be seeing on that stage. Long live Perfidia Beverly Hills. No disrespect to Aunt Gladys.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”; Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”; Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”; Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”

BAHR: Everyone in this category has gotten some kind of recognition this season. Elordi won at Critics Choice, Skarsgård at the Globes, Penn at both the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards, Del Toro at the New York Film Critics Circle and Lindo at the NAACP Image Awards. It seems like it is down to Penn, who has two Oscars, and Lindo, who has none. Again, a speech from the Actor Awards might have sealed it: Penn wasn’t there, and Lindo got to shine on behalf of the ensemble.

COYLE: I think it’s gotta be Penn. Winning at both the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards suggests to me he’s got this. The bigger question may be: Will he go? Penn’s skipped the Oscar nominee luncheon and most ceremonies so far. It’s been a while since we had an absent winner. Remember Anthony Hopkins in the COVID Oscars? This is a good category but it’s a crime that Tim Key wasn’t nominated for “The Ballad of Wallis Island.”

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”; Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”; Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”; Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”

COYLE: Anderson is going to win. He won at the Directors Guild Awards and I think there’s an industrywide sense that he’s overdue to win this, or any Oscar. (Anderson has never won one.) Coogler will win this one day, though.

BAHR: Now I’m just thinking about how good a presenter Tim Key would be. But yes, it’s Anderson’s year and I hope they get someone special to give it to him.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees: “The Perfect Neighbor”; “The Alabama Solution”; “Come See Me in the Good Light”; “Cutting Through Rocks”; “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”

BAHR: After a few years in a row of the documentary prize going to internationally focused films spotlighting major global issues (“Navalny,” “20 Days in Mariupol,” “No Other Land”), this might be the year when the focus shifts back to problems in this country, exemplified by “The Alabama Solution” and “The Perfect Neighbor.” I think the prize goes to the latter. Geeta Gandbhir made a riveting film about Florida’s “stand your ground” laws that was actually widely seen thanks to its Netflix platform.

COYLE: I expect “The Perfect Neighbor” to win, too. But this remains one of the quirkiest branches of the academy. Most years, my favorite nonfiction films aren’t showing up here. This year, some notable absences include “Afternoons of Solitude,” “Secret Mall Apartment” and “My Undesirable Friends.”

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Nominees: “The Secret Agent,” Brazil; “It Was Just an Accident,” France; “Sentimental Value,” Norway; “Sirāt,” Spain; “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” Tunisia

COYLE: This is a stacked category, and it still leaves out my top pick, Park Chan-wook’s masterfully dark Korean satire “No Other Choice.” I’m picking Joachim Trier’s exquisitely tender “Sentimental Value” for the win, but I don’t feel good about it. The more timely “The Secret Agent” might be the better call. Either way, Jafar Panahi’s Iranian revenge drama “It Was Just an Accident” is the one that really deserves to win.

BAHR: I totally agree on “It Was Just an Accident.” I’m similarly waffling about how this category will play out, but I’ll throw my pick to “The Secret Agent,” which, like “Sentimental Value,” also got a best picture nomination and an acting nod (“Sentimental Value” notably got three). But the thing that makes it stand out to me is that “The Secret Agent” was also nominated for the casting prize alongside “Sinners,” “One Battle,” “Hamnet” and “Marty Supreme.” Also, that Brazil contingent is strong.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: “Arco,” “Elio,” “KPop Demon Hunters,” “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain,” “Zootopia 2”

BAHR: You know it’s gonna be, gonna be “KPop,” it’s gonna be, gonna be. Sorry, it’s such a bop. And though I might live in a “KPop Demon Hunters” household, I also don’t think it’s a bad choice. It’s not often this award actually goes to a movie that truly had an impact on the culture.

COYLE: By the most important Oscar metric, movie-themed Halloween costumes, “KPop” will win this in a landslide. Any movie that sends hordes upon hordes of young girls into the streets dressed as K-pop-singing demon hunters deserves an Oscar.