THOMPSON: How history will judge America’s war with Iran

Twenty-five years or so from today, students of history will look back at the tipping point that signalled America’s decline as the singular world power with the most control of the fate of everyone on Earth.

The passing of world powers has been with us for millennia. Greeks, Etruscans, Romans, French, German, British…each one had its heyday…each one’s days – it turned out – were numbered.

Poor judgment and governance by those who believed in their infallibility led to the downfall of most if not all nations. The cutting edge of warfare has spanned bows and arrows to nuclear bombs…but in all cases military capability failed to save nations from, well, stupidity.

The transition can be snail-like or incredibly swift. The Romans declined for centuries. Britain went from the top world power in the 1930s to an also-ran by the early 1950s. Its tipping point was the Suez Canal crisis.

In October 1956, Britain, France and Israel attacked Egypt to force open the Suez Canal. U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower ordered them to stop…British Prime Minister Anthony Eden resigned two months later. The British Empire continued in name…but more as a toothless lion than its once invincible stature. The U.S. filled the void…claiming the title of most powerful nation on Earth.

Mark Twain once noted, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” So, the Strait of Hormuz isn’t exactly like Britain’s Suez moment…but perhaps close enough.

The Suez Canal is and was in Egyptian territory…not an international waterway. And as yet, there’s no global power to replace the U.S. in the Mideast or stand up to Trump’s bullying. Of course, China and Israel are waiting in the wings…more than happy to be the world’s Number One.

In America’s current war with Iran…and make no mistake it is a war…America had little reason to poke the bear. Here in the second month of the war…not a single thing has been gained by the U.S. Much has been lost.

The Strait of Hormuz that was open…now is a toll road benefitting Iran…not to mention China and Russia. Gas, oil and fertilizer prices have soared. Food prices are up. The world economy is less stable.

Now, U.S. Vice President JD Vance is trying to negotiate a resolution in a war that was largely unnecessary. A favourable outcome is far from guaranteed. But most of the negatives – higher oil and petrochemical prices and an economic anchor – will likely  continue through the end of this year.

Regardless of how and when the war ends…most throughout the world see it as a defeat for America. Only in the mind of Donald Trump and his Republican cult will this ever be seen as an American victory. Trump has ground American credibility to the thinnest it has ever been. 

Even more unfortunate for America, hundreds of millions of young people worldwide – those 15 to 25 years old – are forming the worst possible impressions of the United States. 

Most of the adults worldwide ten years from now – including those who govern their nations – will pre-judge America based on the Trump Administration’s actions today.

Bad enough that the U.S. has sworn enemies…but Trump has made former friends and allies distrust anything America does. Trump didn’t consult long-time allies before attacking Iran. In fact, Israel’s Netanyahu pulled Trump by nose ring into the war.

Most of the world…and certainly NATO partners were victims of Trump’s tariff wars and a threat to take Greenland from Denmark by force if necessary. Why would former friends not see these as betrayals…evidence of unreliability, contempt and condescension?

One thing holds true…as my dad cautioned me when I made mistakes as a teenager who should have known better: “Son, It takes a hundred “atta boys” to make up for one “aw, shit”.