TORONTO – A prominent U.S. tech analyst is giving Research In Motion’s new operating system a small chance of success in the smartphone market when it launches in early 2013.

Analyst Peter Misek of New York-based Jeffries & Company is giving the BlackBerry 10 operating system a 20 per cent to 30 per cent probability of success.

Misek says wireless carriers in developed markets have a more positive view of BB10 than he had expected.

He also says he’s a bit “puzzled” by the carriers’ more positive outlook on BB10, given that RIM’s new operating system is two years late and the company’s market share has plunged to five per cent from 20 per cent.

Misek says in a research note that he has raised his target price for the Waterloo, Ont., smartphone maker to $10 from $5, and raised his rating on the stock to hold from underperform.

Shares in Research In Motion (TSX:RIM) were up 2.5 per cent, or 24 cents, to $9.83 in morning trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Misek says his theory is that carriers see BB10 as one of their last chances to avoid being locked into a long-term smartphone operating duopoly with Apple and Android.

But he says consumers will ultimately decide the success of RIM’s new operating system and its smartphones.