AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Hampshire on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — New Hampshire voters are deciding whether to elevate a Republican to a Senate seat that’s been held by a Democrat for a decade and a half.

They’re also choosing two House members, and the governor’s race will help determine whether Republicans maintain their “trifecta” hold on the governorship and both chambers of the Legislature.

The “Live Free or Die” state, where voters are known for their independent-mindedness, is one of several states that could determine whether Democrats will wrest control of the U.S. Senate from Republicans in the midterm elections. The seat is open after Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who was first elected to the Senate in 2008 and previously served as governor, announced in 2025 that she would not seek a fourth term.

Among those vying to take over Shaheen’s seat is Chris Pappas, a Democrat who has represented New Hampshire in the U.S. House since 2019. Pappas would be the first openly gay U.S. senator if elected. He is opposed by John E. Sununu, a Republican who has served in both chambers of Congress and was ousted from the Senate by Shaheen in the 2008 election. Sununu may benefit from name recognition in the race as he is from a storied political family; his father and brother were governors of the state.

Pappas has far outraised Sununu, amassing a war chest of over $23.7 million compared with the Republican’s $5.7 million as of mid-October. But tens of millions more in outside spending have poured into the race, with outside groups spending more to oppose Pappas than Sununu. Housing costs have risen rapidly in the state in recent years, and both candidates have made affordability a central issue of their campaigns.

Both candidates have also distanced themselves from their own political parties. While President Donald Trump endorsed Sununu in February, the Republican candidate has sought to distance himself in recent weeks from the president, whose plunging approval rating could represent a liability in a race that increasingly appears to be a referendum on the presidency. Pappas, a moderate Democrat who defeated a progressive challenger in the primary, has similarly tried to emphasize his independence from some of the party’s establishment figures, highlighting instead his appeal to independent voters.

In New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, Stefany Shaheen, a Democrat and the outgoing senator’s daughter, is facing Republican Anthony DiLorenzo to occupy Pappas’ seat. In the 2nd District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander is in a rematch against Republican Lily Tang Williams, who was Goodlander’s GOP opponent in 2024. All of New Hampshire’s seats in Congress have been occupied by Democrats since 2017, and the state has voted for a Democrat in every presidential race since 2004.

In a reflection of New Hampshire voters’ willingness to split their votes between parties, however, the state has had a Republican governor since 2017. New Hampshire is one of only two states whose governors serve two-year terms, and incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican who was first elected to the seat in 2024, is defending her seat against Democrat Cinde Warmington, a former member of the state’s Executive Council.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at different times in different parts of the state, at 7 p.m., 7:30 p.m. and 8 p.m. In some towns with only a handful of residents, polls open at midnight on Election Day and close a few minutes later once all voters have cast a ballot.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for U.S. Senate, governor, U.S. House, a statewide ballot measure, state Senate, state House and Executive Council.

How many people voted in the last midterm election?

Over 620,000 votes were cast in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire.

How much of the vote is cast by absentee ballot?

About 10% of all ballots cast in New Hampshire’s 2022 election were cast early or by absentee ballot.

The latest advance vote totals for New Hampshire can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker.

When are early and absentee votes released?

New Hampshire runs elections at the town and city level. There are 238 separate jurisdictions administering local elections, and they vary in terms of how and when they release results. Most of the larger jurisdictions in the state release all or nearly all their results from both absentee and in-person Election Day voting in their first vote updates of the night. Other large jurisdictions release a mix of results throughout the night.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 presidential election, the state reached 50% of votes reporting at 10:12 p.m. on Election Day and 90% of votes reporting at 1:42 a.m.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

There are no automatic recounts in New Hampshire, but a candidate may request and pay for a recount if the margin is 20% or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.

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