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TORONTO – The Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings have captured five of the last six Stanley Cups, but both could be vulnerable in a first round which sees a number of teams with key injury questions.
Here’s a look at how the first round of the NHL playoffs could go down:
Eastern Conference
Florida Panthers (1) vs. New York Islanders (4)
Pick: Panthers in six.
Florida has only been past the first round once in franchise history and that was way back in 1996 when the club advanced to the Stanley Cup final. This year should be different. The Panthers are loaded with young talent, notably 20-year-olds Aleksander Barkov and Aaron Ekblad, and backed up by old wily types like 44-year-old Jaromir Jagr and 37-year-old Roberto Luongo.
Their depth, size and talent should overwhelm the Islanders, who haven’t been past the first round since 1993 and will be without No. 1 goaltender Jaroslav Halak as well as helpful forwards like Anders Lee (15 goals) and Mikhail Grabovski.
Thomas Greiss has been just okay in Halak’s absence (.913 save percentage), has never started an NHL playoff game and seems unlikely to best Luongo in a seven-game series.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs. Detroit Red Wings (3)
Pick: Lightning in six.
Tampa may have lost crucial pieces like Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman to injury, but they still have a sizeable advantage in goal with Ben Bishop and that should be enough for Tampa to escape the first round.
Bishop is likely to face fellow American Jimmy Howard, who’s struggled through his worst NHL season and has the job only as a result of 24-year-old Petr Mrazek’s struggles.
Tampa will certainly be tested without Stralman, but there’s enough depth in the lineup to get by without Stamkos, provided Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn are able to replicate their 2015 playoff performances.
Still, it’s the massive edge in goal that will power the Lightning to a first round win.
Washington Capitals (1) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (4)
Pick: Capitals in six.
The Flyers were scrapping for their playoff lives down the stretch while the Capitals cruised comfortably to the President’s Trophy. That may give Philadelphia an early advantage, but Washington should prevail in the end.
The Flyers have enough with Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek as well as a game-changer in Shayne Gostisbehere on the back-end to make this a competitive series. But they can’t compete with the variety and depth of talent in the Capitals lineup, which goes beyond stars Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom with 23-year-old leading scorer Evgeni Kuznetsov as well as tested veterans like Justin Williams and Jason Chimera.
That depth, along with Vezina Trophy favourite Braden Holtby and the NHL’s second-best penalty kill and fifth-best power-play, should be enough for the Capitals to escape a testy first round battle.
Pittsburgh Penguins (2) vs. New York Rangers (3)
Pick: Penguins in seven.
The Rangers have taken the Penguins out in each of the last two post-seasons, including in five games last spring. But this could just be the year that Pittsburgh finally gains the edge, though health issues remain.
The Penguins are the hottest team entering the playoffs and they’ve been a far different outfit under head coach Mike Sullivan, scoring and possessing the puck with greater frequency. Pittsburgh also has Sidney Crosby back on his game after a slow start, Phil Kessel fully engaged and Kris Letang healthy and at a Norris Trophy level.
What Pittsburgh doesn’t have is a healthy Evgeni Malkin, defenceman Olli Maatta or goaltenders, Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray. Their returns are uncertain, and without Fleury or Murray the Penguins could be left with untested 28-year-old Jeff Zatkoff.
That’s a big question mark, especially when facing Henrik Lundqvist, who had another fine year between the pipes and seems to raise his game every spring. But New York, too, has injury questions, most notably in captain Ryan McDonagh, who won’t be available to start the series, as well an aging roster that may have passed its peak.
This should be the year Pittsburgh leaps past New York.
Western Conference
Dallas Stars (1) vs. Minnesota Wild (4)
Pick: Stars in five.
The Stars won the West with the highest-scoring offence in the NHL, and that firepower that should carry them into the second round for the first time since 2008.
While the Wild boast a formidable defence and decent goaltending, they may not have enough offensive juice to hang with Dallas, especially if injuries prove troublesome. Thomas Vanek has already been ruled out to start the series, and question marks surround Zach Parise and speedy forward Erik Haula.
Dallas has one huge injury question themselves with Tyler Seguin in doubt to start the series following a late season Achilles injury. The Stars also have uncertain goaltending and no apparent No. 1 between Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi.
But there’s just too much weaponry in Dallas beyond Seguin, including captain Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza, for the Stars not to emerge.
St. Louis Blues (2) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (3)
Pick: Blues in seven.
One team has won three Stanley Cups in the last six seasons while the other is an annual post-season disappointment. But this could be the year that the Blues finally go on a deep run.
The Blues are excellent defensively, boast terrific special teams, and have another game-breaking talent alongside Vladimir Tarasenko in 20-year-old Robby Fabbri.
Their big question will be in goal with Brian Elliott standing in for injured No. 1 Jake Allen. Elliott has a mixed playoff track record and hasn’t started a post-season game since 2013.
Chicago has the likely Hart Trophy winner, an army of quality depth up front, and a Vezina Trophy contender in Corey Crawford, but they won’t have Duncan Keith for Game 1 (suspension) and are wobbly on the back-end.
It’ll be close, but perhaps this is finally the year for St. Louis.
Anaheim Ducks (1) vs. Nashville Predators (4)
Pick: Ducks in five.
There’s little to dislike about the Ducks. They’re big, strong and talented up front and on defence, have quality young netminders and the best special teams in hockey. Anaheim has also been the league’s top team since an early slide.
Nashville, meanwhile, has been up and down all year along, storming through parts of February and March before stumbling again at the end of the year. Goaltending can be the great equalizer in the playoffs, but Pekka Rinne just completed one of his worst seasons in the NHL and it’s uncertain if he can recapture past highs.
Nashville does have more offensive pep than past years and a quality defence, but there’s just not enough here to topple a real Cup contender like Anaheim.
Los Angeles Kings (2) vs. San Jose Sharks (3)
Pick: Sharks in seven.
It’s usually a mistake to bet against the Kings, but like the Blues, perhaps this is the year the Sharks can exercise some playoff demons. It was two years ago that San Jose had Los Angeles on the ropes before losing four straight to the eventual champs in a devastating seven-game series.
Led by the seemingly ageless Joe Thornton, eccentric Brent Burns and perpetually underrated Joe Pavelski, the Sharks enjoyed a strong second half with superb puck possession numbers, solid goaltending from the James Reimer-Martin Jones combination, and a power-play might just be the difference this spring.
In three wins over Los Angeles in the regular season, San Jose scored five power-play goals.
The Kings remain a force, and like the Blackhawks will be a tough out, but there’s enough talent in San Jose to make it happen.
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