Canadian intelligence caught off guard by Arab Spring: government report

OTTAWA – An internal report says the Canadian government was caught off guard by the Arab Spring.

And the assessment of strategic intelligence capabilities says a risk remains that Canada could get surprised again.

The report was carried out by the research arm of the Department of National Defence and looked at how analysts in the Privy Council Office did in assessing major changes in the Middle East through 2011.

It found they didn’t anticipate the wave of protests and regime change, but noted that neither did most academics, media, non-governmental organizations and other private sector analysts.

The report says staff with the privy council, the bureaucracy that supports the prime minister, did appreciate the significance of the events once they were underway and did well figuring out likely outcomes.

But the report says they need to move beyond analyzing events already public and look ahead for possible trends so they don’t get surprised again.