The incumbent advantage is a well-established trend in Canadian elections, perhaps most often in municipal elections.

Voters can pick up to nine names on some ballots in municipal elections next month, not including school districts, and familiarity goes a long way.

It looks like Kamloops may buck that trend.

“As I’m looking around and seeing the signs and advertising, the incumbents are campaigning very hard… I think they’re hearing the same thing, that incumbents are maybe not as much of a lock as they often are,” former Kamloops mayor Ken Christian told iNFOnews.ca.

Less than a fifth of incumbent candidates have lost in the last three Kamloops elections, not including those that stepped away from council to a run for the mayor’s job. That’s just three of the 17 people running for the same office in back-to-back terms.

Kelowna voters have stuck to familiar names even more frequently, selecting every incumbent except mayor Colin Basran in 2022.

“Incumbents have an advantage because of name recognition, right? You see a ballot like Kamloops with (dozens of) people on the ballot, you get blown away,” Christian said. “So they go down the list until they see a name they recognize. That is an unfortunate way to vote, but it happens a lot.”

One Canadian study found incumbent candidates have up to a 30 per cent greater likelihood of winning in local elections, and another found a 10 per cent better chance for MPs in federal elections.

The upcoming election in Kamloops has seven incumbent councillors on the ballot, along with the mayor, guaranteeing at least one new face. Kelowna has five incumbents in the race, including the current mayor, meaning at least four people will be new to city hall after October’s election.

A few have dropped out in Vernon and Penticton, with one Vernon city councillor running for mayor. So, Vernon will have at least three new winners while Penticton will have two.

The other cities likely do not have the same anti-incumbent sentiment bubbling among voters as Kamloops, where the past scandal-filled term has soured some against city hall. The chaotic term has been unlike any other local government in the Thompson-Okanagan or much of BC.

Christian cautioned against writing off the entire pool of incumbents, urging voters to consider their experience, individual records and platforms.

Christian bowed out of the 2022 election in which three city councillors made a run for mayor. They lost to Reid Hamer-Jackson in his first-ever foray into politics.

Hamer-Jackson is now running against five competitors for the mayoral seat, while 22 candidates are running against the seven city council incumbents.

Voting day is Saturday, Oct. 17 across B.C.