iN NUMBERS: The polls expect BC Conservatives to sweep Okanagan, Kamloops

Polls are just polls and they typically have a pretty high margin of error. For this unpopular early election, the polls are pretty confident that the BC Conservatives are going to win every seat in the Okanagan and Kamloops.

Most of the region has been held by the BC Conservatives, except for Vernon-Lumby where Harwinder Sidhu has been the MLA since 2020 and Penticton-Summerland because its former MLA Amelia Boultbee crossed the floor to the BC NDP. She was elected under the BC Conservative banner.

Here are the latest results from polling company Mainstreet Research and 338Canada, which uses a statistical model to make electoral projections:

• 38.9: Per cent of British Columbians polled said they would vote for the BC Conservative Party.
• 33.4: Per cent of British Columbians polled said they would vote for the BC NDP.
• 13.1: Per cent of British Columbians polled said they are undecided.
• 6: Per cent of the undecideds polled are leaning towards the BC Conservatives.
• 82: Per cent. Those are the odds of the BC Conservatives winning Kelowna Centre, according to projections by 338Canada.
• 40: Votes. That’s how many votes the BC Conservatives won Kelowna Centre by in 2024. It might not be so close this time.
• 99: Per cent. Those are the odds of the BC Conservatives winning Kamloops Centre, according to 338Canada projections.
• 72: Per cent. Those are the odds of the BC Conservatives winning in Vernon-Lumby, a seat held by the BC NDP, according to projections from 338Canada.
• 87: Per cent. Those are the odds of the BC Conservatives winning Penticton-Summerland, according to 338Canada projections.
• 0: Per cent. That’s the chance OneBC has of winning a single riding in the Okanagan and Kamloops, according to projections from 338Canada.