AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Florida on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Florida Republicans will try to extend their dominance in statewide elections Tuesday as voters decide races for Senate, governor and other state and legislative offices. The election will mark the first under a new congressional map adopted by Republicans to boost the party’s chances of keeping control of the closely divided House.

Once the nation’s most evenly divided swing state, Florida has shifted steadily to the right in the last quarter century. At the time of the 2000 presidential election, Democrats had held a voter registration advantage over Republicans for decades. That advantage would erode until 2021 when registered Republicans overtook registered Democrats. Today, there are 1.5 million more Republicans in Florida than Democrats.

In the race for governor, Democrats have nominated a former Republican to lead them out of the electoral doldrums. Former Rep. David Jolly defeated five other candidates in the Aug. 18 primary with 61% of the vote. Jolly took an unlikely path to running for governor as a Democrat, joining the party in 2025 after leaving the GOP in 2018.

He has tapped former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate. Graham is the daughter of the late Bob Graham, the longtime Democratic senator and governor.

The Republican nominee is Rep. Byron Donalds, who won the 11-candidate primary with the help of an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Donalds received about 48% of the primary vote, almost double that of the runner-up, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins. Donalds backed Trump over Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in the 2024 presidential primaries and was considered as a possible Trump running mate that year. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have each campaigned for Donalds in Florida since the president launched his midterm campaign push last month.

Six other independent or third-party candidates are also on the ballot.

In this year’s Senate race, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody defends her seat against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon as well as an independent candidate.

Moody was state attorney general in January 2025 when DeSantis appointed her to fill the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, who was tapped by Trump to be secretary of state. She is now running to complete the final two years of Rubio’s term.

Nixon, a democratic socialist, received 56% of the August primary vote against retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, who received about 44%. Vindman, a former National Security Council staff member, was a key witness in Trump’s first impeachment in 2019. His brother, Eugene, was elected to Congress from Virginia’s 7th District in 2024.

If elected, Donalds would become Florida’s first Black governor and the nation’s first elected Black Republican governor. Nixon would become the state’s first Black U.S. senator.

Florida Democrats have faced a drought in statewide elections, particularly for governor. A Democrat last won the governorship more than 30 years ago. DeSantis was reelected in 2022 with a 19-point margin over former Gov. Charlie Crist, another former Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat. Democrats last won a Florida U.S. Senate seat in 2012.

The new congressional boundaries Republicans enacted in May essentially eliminate four congressional districts most recently represented by Democrats. Three Democratic incumbents face tough challenges in newly drawn districts: Kathy Castor in the 14th District around Tampa, Darren Soto in the 9th District near Orlando and Jared Moskowitz in the 25th District in South Florida along the Gold Coast.

The redrawn 22nd Congressional District in South Florida also has a competitive race. It contains almost all of the current majority-Black 20th Congressional District, which had been represented by Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick before she resigned in April. It also includes large portions of the current 26th and 18th Congressional Districts, which are both heavily Republican.

In statewide elections, Democrats usually perform best in the Orlando and Tallahassee areas and in South Florida along the Gold Coast. Republicans usually post their strongest numbers in North Florida and the panhandle. They also do well in Central Florida and along the Gulf of Mexico.

Hillsborough and Pinellas counties around Tampa Bay are key state battlegrounds. Trump narrowly won both counties in 2024, while Democrat Joe Biden narrowly carried both in 2020. Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton split the counties in 2016.

Duval County, home to Jacksonville, is another swing area. Trump narrowly carried it in 2024 and 2016, while Biden carried it narrowly in 2020.

Miami-Dade County in South Florida will also be a key county to watch. In 2024, Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters and became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the county since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET. Most of the state is in Eastern time, and polls there close at 7 p.m. ET. A few counties are in Central time, and polls there close at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, attorney general, chief financial officer, agriculture commissioner, state Senate, state House and three statewide ballot measures.

How many people actually vote?

About 7.8 million votes were cast in Florida’s 2022 Senate election.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 65% of the vote in the 2022 Senate election was cast early in-person or by mail.

The latest advance vote totals for Florida can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker.

When are early and absentee votes released?

Florida counties are expected to release all or almost all of their results from early in-person and mail voting in their first vote updates of the night, almost always before releasing any results from in-person Election Day voting. Only three counties are expected to release any in-person Election Day results in their first vote update.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results at 7 p.m. ET as polls closed in most of the state. The vote count reached the halfway mark at about 7:16 p.m. ET. About 99% of total votes counted had been counted by 10:51 p.m. ET.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

Florida requires a machine recount in races where the vote margin is 0.5% or less of the total votes cast. A manual recount of overvotes and undervotes is then required if the machine recount results in a vote margin of 0.25% or less of the total votes cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.