College football picks: If a rivalry game comes down a field goal, kickers are on a record pace

This being Thanksgiving week, it would seem an appropriate time for college football teams to show their kickers some appreciation. After all, the guys who mostly stand alone on the sideline until they’re called upon have never been better and perhaps they will play a role in settling a rivalry game this week.

Bowl Subdivision kickers enter the final week of the regular season having made 77.2% of their field goals, according to Sportradar. They’re on pace to break the record of 76.7% set in 2022.

Last season was the first that kickers made more than half of their field-goal attempts of 50-plus yards, hitting 54.7%. This season they’re making 51.8%. The extra-point success rate of 98.6% is ahead of the record 98.1% in 2023.

No kicker is better at his craft than Hawaii’s Kansei Matsuzawa, who is 23 for 23 for the longest run of perfection in a season in FBS history. The “Tokyo Toe,” as he’s called, is 8 for 8 from 40-49 yards and 1 for 1 from beyond 50 (52).

The picks for this week’s games, with Top 25 rankings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

No. 1 Ohio State (minus 10) at No. 15 Michigan

Buckeyes don’t need to have wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate back from injury to end their four-game losing streak in The Game, but it sure would help.

Pick: Ohio State 24-13.

No. 2 Indiana (minus 28 1/2) at Purdue

Boilermakers have lost nine straight but are a bit more competitive than the team that lost 66-0 to Indiana last year. They’re not nearly good enough to deny the Hoosiers their first 12-win season and appearance in the Big Ten title game.

Pick: Indiana 45-10.

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (plus 2 1/2)

This sets up as a quarterback duel. Aggies’ Marcel Reed must be licking his chops at prospect of facing a poor Texas pass defense. Longhorns’ Arch Manning has a hot hand and lots of confidence after six-TD day against Arkansas.

Pick: Texas A&M 31-30.

No. 4 Georgia (minus 13) at No. 23 Georgia Tech

Bulldogs have rolled off seven straight wins and looked pretty good doing it. Yellow Jackets have allowed 124 points while losing two of their last three games.

Pick: Georgia 40-24.

No. 5 Oregon at Washington (plus 7)

Ducks’ defense has been solid keeping running quarterbacks under control. Huskies’ Demond Williams Jr. will be their biggest challenge. Plus, he throws a good ball.

Pick: Oregon 28-22.

No. 6 Mississippi at Mississippi State (plus 7 1/2)

With the spotlight shining on Oxford and will-he-stay-or-will-he-go coach Lane Kiffin, it would be easy to pick an Egg Bowl upset. But Mississippi State can’t stop the run, and Kewan Lacy went for 224 yards against Florida two weeks ago.

Pick: Mississippi 27-20.

No. 7 Texas Tech (minus 23 1/2) at West Virginia

It’s hard to imagine the Red Raiders messing up now that they’re on cusp of their first Big 12 title game. Mountaineers are 2-1 in November and nearly knocked off Arizona State on the road last week.

Pick: Texas Tech 52-17.

LSU (plus 10) at No. 8 Oklahoma

Neither offense has gotten much done lately. Sooners always can rely on their defense, and they’re plenty motivated with a CFP at-large bid at stake.

Pick: Oklahoma 19-10.

No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (plus 32 1/2)

The 10:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff is the latest game Notre Dame has played since 1991. One thing’s for sure: the yards won’t come as easily for Jeremiyah Love as they did last week against Syracuse.

Pick: Notre Dame 33-14.

No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (plus 5 1/2)

Five of Auburn’s six losses this season have been by one score. Last three Iron Bowls at Jordan-Hare Stadium have been decided by a combined eight points.

Pick: Auburn 23-21.

UCF at No. 11 BYU (minus 17 1/2)

Cougars got aced out of the Big 12 championship game last year and won’t let that happen this year. UCF ranks 132nd out of 136 FBS teams in scoring on the road at 10.8 points per game.

Pick: BYU 30-7.

No. 12 Vanderbilt (plus 2 1/2) at No. 18 Tennessee

It’s a matchup of the top two scoring offenses in the SEC. Vanderbilt has the better defense, though, and Commodores QB Diego Pavia’s encore to his career game against Kentucky will be worth watching.

Pick: Vanderbilt 45-42.

No. 13 Miami at No. 24 Pittsburgh (plus 6 1/2)

Pittsburgh, beaten soundly by Notre Dame in its last home game, got a shot of confidence with its impressive win at Georgia Tech. Both teams still alive for ACC championship game but need help. Early kickoff means they won’t have to do any scoreboard watching.

Pick: Pittsburgh 26-24.

No. 14 Utah (minus 13 1/2) at Kansas

Utes, who wiped out a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to sneak past Kansas State, have scored 204 points over the last four games and have the nation’s No. 2 rushing offense.

Pick: Utah 38-19.

Virginia Tech at No. 17 Virginia (minus 10 1/2)

Hokies have won 19 of the last 20 meetings and the last two haven’t been close. This is Virginia’s year, though. Cavaliers are in ACC title game with a win.

Pick: Virginia 28-16.

UCLA at No. 19 Southern California (minus 20 1/2)

USC went from CFP contention last week to playing for a spot in the Alamo Bowl. Motivation could be a factor. UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava entered the week day-to-day after leaving last week’s game against Washington with neck spasms.

Pick: USC 42-21.

No. 20 James Madison (minus 22 1/2) at Coastal Carolina

Dukes can match their FBS program record with an 11th win and can break it next week in the Sun Belt Conference championship game.

Pick: James Madison 41-14.

Temple at No. 21 North Texas (minus 19 1/2)

North Texas, which found out Tuesday it will lose coach Eric Morris to Oklahoma State after the season, has won five straight by an average of 29.4 points. Temple, closing the season against the teeth of its conference schedule, has lost three straight.

Pick: North Texas 43-23.

Charlotte at No. 22 Tulane (minus 29 1/2)

Green Wave can do themselves a favor by getting out to a big lead and resting their starters for the American title game. The 49ers are winless against FBS teams, all double-digit losses.

Pick: Tulane 39-7.

No. 25 SMU (minus 11 1/2) at California

SMU, which can advance to the ACC title game with a win, leads the league and is sixth in the country with 34 sacks. Cal, which fired Justin Wilcox on Sunday, has given up 23 over the last six games.

Pick: SMU 27-13.

AP predictions scorecard

Last week: Straight-up — 14-3; Against spread — 13-4.

Season: Straight-up — 170-51; Against spread — 106-114-1.

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This story has been updated to correct reference to Arizona State, not Arizona, in the Texas Tech pick.