OTTAWA — The annual immigration levels update will be included in the federal budget being released Thursday, a government source with knowledge of the plan has confirmed.

This will be the second year the annual update is included in the budget document.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has said immigration is back under control and he told the New York Times in September the question is now about when Canada should begin a “controlled increase” in population.

Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said Monday Canada previously was bringing in more people than public services could handle or communities could absorb.

“I always felt that you need to welcome people to Canada, but on a level that allows you to provide the basic services or the infrastructure that can support the people coming into our shore,” Champagne said during a pre-budget appearance at the Canadian Club of Ottawa.

“And therefore, that’s what we did. We’ve been able to bring the immigration level to a more sustainable level for now, but also for the future.”

During a Monday speech to the Canadian Club of Toronto, Champagne said Canada has relied too much on an expanding population for growth, instead of focusing on worker and business productivity.

Cedric Marin, an Ottawa-based immigration lawyer and a former member of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada, said he expects to see the government increase the number of permanent residents.

He also predicts those new permanent residents will mostly be people who are already here — particularly those who fled wars to come here on work or study visa programs.

“The government’s policy over the last years has admitted literally hundreds of thousands of people through temporary public policies, whether it’s the Ukrainian policy, whether it was the Afghan policy,” he said.

“What’s the solution? Well, solution one is they leave Canada, right, to go back to Ukraine, which is not an option, to go to Haiti, which not an option. Number two would be to provide for a pathway for them to legally settle inside Canada through permanent residency.”

Marin said if the government opens a permanent residency path for these people, it could save government resources currently being expended on visa renewals while keeping the size of the temporary population in check.

Batia Stein, managing partner for EY Law’s immigration practice, said she’s not expecting a major immigration increase in the levels plan. She said the business community is looking for predictability as sectors like health services, skilled trades and technology look to bring more talent to Canada.

“We talked about reducing student numbers in the last year or so. There’s also been a big reduction then in the postgraduate work permits sort of moving on to permanent residence. And that had a fairly big impact on employers in Canada,” Stein said.

“We had a whole bunch of people who were in Canada, already working, who now could not become permanent residents of Canada. And so there was a reliance on that population that suddenly changed for our Canadian employers.”

The government’s current plan is to admit 380,000 permanent residents annually between 2026 and 2028. Ottawa also has two one-time programs aimed at giving permanent status to 140,000 temporary residents through 2026 and 2027 that aren’t included in the broader target.

Jason Kenney, former Alberta premier and federal immigration minister, told The Canadian Press in October immigration levels were still too high and should be lowered further.

“We need a period of lower levels so that we can absorb the overhang of admissions under the Trudeau-era and focus on successful integration,” Kenney said.

“A country is not just a balance sheet. Sure, if your only goal is to juice GDP numbers, you bring in infinite immigrants because then you get infinite demand. But you also get a crash in per capita GDP and living standards and all of the associated problems.”

Kenney cautioned that if Canada is unsuccessful in integrating new arrivals, it could lead to the kind of pushback on immigration that has contributed to the rise of far-right nationalist parties in countries like the U.K., France and Germany.

Stein, who immigrated to Canada from South Africa, said she’s seen more pushback against immigration policy lately than at any other time in her 30 year career. She said more needs to be done to tell the story of immigrants’ contributions to Canada.

Stein said Canada is getting to a place where there’s an opportunity to look at “some controlled and sustained” growth after recent reductions.

The previous Liberal government had planned to add 500,000 permanent residents annually. Justin Trudeau’s government began to reverse course and reduce the number of newcomer admissions in 2024, a trend the Carney government has since continued.

Statistics Canada data shows Canada’s estimated population grew from about 38 million people on July 1, 2020 to just over 41 million on the same date in 2024. Population growth has slowed over the last two years; the July 1, 2026 population estimate is just shy of 41.8 million people.

The government has set a goal of reducing the number of temporary residents in Canada to five per cent of the total population by the end of 2027. Statistics Canada estimates the non-permanent resident population at 6.7 per cent of the total population as of July 1.

The annual update will be published after its legally mandated Nov. 1 deadline, even though the Immigration and Refugees Protection Act says the report must be tabled in Parliament on or before that day if the House is sitting.

Nov. 1 fell on a Saturday last year and the government used that fact to publish the levels report after the deadline. The deadline fell on a Sunday this year. The House was sitting during the week leading up to the deadline in both years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 3, 2026.